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Jan 14, 2013
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let me does you, tim hollands, how are you putting work to be in this environment? what kind of year do you expect it to be? >> we don't have price on the dow, but we continue to look at more domestic-facing companies and industries, so consumer finance are big parts of both portfolios. we think housing continues to improve, consumer continues to delever, monetary policy remains supportive, so stock-pickers, we own redwood trust, which is a mortgage reit investment jumbo. we own carmax. they invented the used car superstore, lots of growth left there. and then a final stock would be ko colfax, which we do a great job as the vascular system for the global economy. they build large fluid systems for petrochemical companies, energy companies, as the economy comes in, as industrial production comes back, they're well positioned. so, we're pretty constructive on the asset class, particularly because a lot of people don't seem to be all that constructive on the asset class. >> steve sax, what about you? where are you seeing the flow? what are investors particularly grav s
let me does you, tim hollands, how are you putting work to be in this environment? what kind of year do you expect it to be? >> we don't have price on the dow, but we continue to look at more domestic-facing companies and industries, so consumer finance are big parts of both portfolios. we think housing continues to improve, consumer continues to delever, monetary policy remains supportive, so stock-pickers, we own redwood trust, which is a mortgage reit investment jumbo. we own carmax....
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Jan 17, 2013
01/13
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a stock like citi group, we have in a low growth environment. earning $55 billion of excess capital. 45% of the market gap they can payback. the fed will restrict them in terms of the progress or how quickly they can do it but i would argue it's hard to find a large cap stock that can buy back or pay divisives of 40%, 45% of its market cap. >> kevin good to talk to you. that was for spending some time with us on halftime today. >> appreciate it. >> kevin holt. >>> biggest pops and drop. blackrock is getting a nice pop today. >> company report ad great number. 24 cents above plan. they also announce ad dividend increase better than expected and a buy back. inflows are also being seen. good story. this is the one to own. >> what's going on with lenard. >> i missed this home builder trade. screwed that one up. i'm not of the opinion either of these trade you move to the sidelines. >> netflix. >> netflix looks good too. netflix, big rumor out yesterday about big sellers in the stock. also the announcement that coin star is lunching streaming. >> we
a stock like citi group, we have in a low growth environment. earning $55 billion of excess capital. 45% of the market gap they can payback. the fed will restrict them in terms of the progress or how quickly they can do it but i would argue it's hard to find a large cap stock that can buy back or pay divisives of 40%, 45% of its market cap. >> kevin good to talk to you. that was for spending some time with us on halftime today. >> appreciate it. >> kevin holt. >>>...
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Jan 17, 2013
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you will be stuck with older, less fuel efficient planes to deal with a higher priced oil environment when you can fill every seat have you and then some. boeing, the single greatest short of our lifetime, frankly, actually rallied 92 cents today. a bear's worst nightmare, which, of course, is there for the single best possible dream. for a bull. now, let's extrapolate the story. we were suppose supposed to have a horrendous, hideous economy. those guys real downers. why? washington gridlocked, confidence down, horrible down there. president, republicans, care less about the economy. supposed to be crushed, absolutely annihilated about worries of the upcoming debt ceiling and laid to waste by the end of the tax holiday. rich people stopped dead in their tracks by new tax hikes. one so steep we were supposed to switch to peanut butter and jelly sandwiches rather than dining at three-star restaurants. pass the skippy, keep the foie gras. we find out we had the highest housing starts since the boom, double where we were not that long ago, and the analysts were determined to tell you hous
you will be stuck with older, less fuel efficient planes to deal with a higher priced oil environment when you can fill every seat have you and then some. boeing, the single greatest short of our lifetime, frankly, actually rallied 92 cents today. a bear's worst nightmare, which, of course, is there for the single best possible dream. for a bull. now, let's extrapolate the story. we were suppose supposed to have a horrendous, hideous economy. those guys real downers. why? washington gridlocked,...
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Jan 18, 2013
01/13
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how do we make money in this environment? we know where we are, see what the reality is, may not be what you want but the fed is there, providing easy market and that's why this market wants to go nowhere but up except in equities. how do you make money in this market? >> the fed is pushing you into risk assets so that's where you go. you have to keep going while the band is playing, but this is what concerns me is at what point do we get the snap-back? we already started off 2012 with a record amount of money going into high yield. how would you like to buy c-paper and get 5.5% return on it as far as yield goes? >> i would hate to be a portfolio manager in this kind of environment because i don't know how you balance a portfolio in terms of risk. >> i would love to be one, and i think part of it is if you -- you can make money dmest click because stocks are still relatively valued or undervalued based on, you know, the fed's model and other models, a lot of opportunities to pick up stocks that were hit hard during the summer
how do we make money in this environment? we know where we are, see what the reality is, may not be what you want but the fed is there, providing easy market and that's why this market wants to go nowhere but up except in equities. how do you make money in this market? >> the fed is pushing you into risk assets so that's where you go. you have to keep going while the band is playing, but this is what concerns me is at what point do we get the snap-back? we already started off 2012 with a...
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Jan 15, 2013
01/13
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against that backdrop, you have a pretty risky environment in the sense that pcs are going through a lot of change right now. so while the valuation of dell stock is pretty darn attractive and i understand the rationale in this low interest rate environment to want to do a deal, because the deal is so large and there's uncertainty around dell's pc core business, i think when push comes to shove, the deal does not get done. >> i want to underscore one of the top rated analysts doesn't think that it's going to happen. shares are moving a little bit higher. stocks almost 23% at this point. obviously had that huge move yesterday. where does that leave the company's future, toni? what are they going to do? >> look, i think the company has been very deliberate in laying out a strategy, which is, we're going to try and move away from pcs. we're going to take our cash and buy companies to try and make us more of an enterprise player. one of the benefits of not going private is you have more degrees of freedom. you don't have to use your cash flow to pay down debt. you can use your cash flow
against that backdrop, you have a pretty risky environment in the sense that pcs are going through a lot of change right now. so while the valuation of dell stock is pretty darn attractive and i understand the rationale in this low interest rate environment to want to do a deal, because the deal is so large and there's uncertainty around dell's pc core business, i think when push comes to shove, the deal does not get done. >> i want to underscore one of the top rated analysts doesn't...
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Jan 15, 2013
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treasury, and that type of environment where dividends are going to grow 10% this year, that can be a good backdrop on stocks like ford that developed its dividend last week, lowe's on the home improvement side and dresser injuries and transindustries. >> with all due respect, jpmorgan out yesterday saying that maybe the dividend play is last year's play and maybe now is the time to get into riskier assets in equities because they feel like the economy is going to start to pick up. so you're sticking with the dividend play though? >> i am. for these two reasons. one, bill, the growth of dividends is the story. not the absolute yield. it's the growth in dividends and that can be names like qualcomm, apple, ford is my example. second. when investors look much like 1994 and 1999, when interest rates went higher, the ten-year treasury was yielding, was returning minus 3% for those two calendar years. people will come back to the stock market, but they will come back to the stock market in the safer yield and dividend-growing stories. that is why i think the catalyst for david dents will s
treasury, and that type of environment where dividends are going to grow 10% this year, that can be a good backdrop on stocks like ford that developed its dividend last week, lowe's on the home improvement side and dresser injuries and transindustries. >> with all due respect, jpmorgan out yesterday saying that maybe the dividend play is last year's play and maybe now is the time to get into riskier assets in equities because they feel like the economy is going to start to pick up. so...
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Jan 16, 2013
01/13
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in the near term, overall performance of the pc client group is key to understanding the overall environment. but for the stock, the company's full year guidance, which we expect to hear, probably matters more so i'll be watching that. longer term, analysts need better evidence that intel really can gain ground in tablets and smartphones where so far, chip giant just hasn't made a dent. back to you. >> thank you for that, jon fortt. the other issue is inventory. that's been rising as a percent of revenues since the third quarter of last year. and that is -- they have to scale back production in order to cut back the inventory. >> they are so poorly positioned in the tablet space, tabletting are destroying laptops right now. if you talk about emerging market growth, it's again, back to that apple story. it's as a much lower gross margin. intel guided gross margins to 57%. that's the lowest since q-3 2009. i don't think it's a good press. it just rallied 10% off the november lows, but it's kind of in no man's land. you really need to get a sense how they are positioned. don't forget, they are
in the near term, overall performance of the pc client group is key to understanding the overall environment. but for the stock, the company's full year guidance, which we expect to hear, probably matters more so i'll be watching that. longer term, analysts need better evidence that intel really can gain ground in tablets and smartphones where so far, chip giant just hasn't made a dent. back to you. >> thank you for that, jon fortt. the other issue is inventory. that's been rising as a...
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Jan 15, 2013
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the group struck a down beat note warning that the global environment would remain challenging. let's take a look at shares. they are trading up nearly 4% in trade in london, up better than 7% in the last seven days. what's interesting, too, this is a company that last year just in talking about chinese sales saw shares get walked. >> after a really big run. there was a lot built into expectation owes that. >> this time, investors seemed happy about beating the last time. >> meantime, the 2% drop for same-store sales for h&m showed total sales up 8% last month, outperforming stims estimates. >>> coming up, we'll take a closer look at burberry with. >> inny carlisle, joining out at so is 10:45 a.m. central european time. set your alarm clock. >> something even more important is going on. for all of those who like a strong pint of bitter, the british beermaker has announced that it is reducing the alcohol content in its ale because of rising costs and lower demand. apparently watered down beer allows the parent company, heineken, to pay a lower rate of duty. so they're going to re
the group struck a down beat note warning that the global environment would remain challenging. let's take a look at shares. they are trading up nearly 4% in trade in london, up better than 7% in the last seven days. what's interesting, too, this is a company that last year just in talking about chinese sales saw shares get walked. >> after a really big run. there was a lot built into expectation owes that. >> this time, investors seemed happy about beating the last time. >>...
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Jan 16, 2013
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. >> one what are the things you think you can do in this environment? by the way, i talked to bankers who say, you know what, i don't know if anyone's going to trust us. first of all i'm not sure anyone did historically trusted banks. >> agreed. >> and that it may never get that much better until, frankly, the economy gets better and the unemployment picture gets better. >> i would sake exception with never. i think there have been times in the past when the banker was your friend. you knew you could go down and get a loan if you needed to buy a house. you didn't worry about whether you could qualify. you worried about, you know, what house you wanted to buy. those are the types we need to get back. to frankly, banking's only one part of the financial services industry. this is a very broad, very wide industry. markets are driven based on people's confidence in their future, their willingness to invest in something they think has a better future than the current times. so earning that confidence. you know, financial advisers in our industry, professiona
. >> one what are the things you think you can do in this environment? by the way, i talked to bankers who say, you know what, i don't know if anyone's going to trust us. first of all i'm not sure anyone did historically trusted banks. >> agreed. >> and that it may never get that much better until, frankly, the economy gets better and the unemployment picture gets better. >> i would sake exception with never. i think there have been times in the past when the banker was...
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Jan 18, 2013
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but we had to adjust to the environment we're in right now. that's what we're dealing with. >> where would you say the net flow is now between morgan stanley brokers and merrill brokers right now? who's winning? are you -- you added more? have they -- and are you -- are you in an aggressive mode right now in terms of offering them increased compensation to come to morgan stanley, or -- >> i'm going to give you an answer which may be a little counterintuitive. the person who's winning might be the one who's actually losing on net flow. in other words, there are some very aggressive recruiting packages out there. anybody can go out and spend money -- >> in the past -- >> spend money and buy talent. do you want us just buying talent? >> i don't know. where are you now in terms of totals? >> we're over 16,500. i forget exactly. i think merrill -- you know, honestly, i don't even know. >> ubs is a big player. >> well, ubs is very different. they're a global private bank doesn't have brokers, has private bankers. the domestic business which is the o
but we had to adjust to the environment we're in right now. that's what we're dealing with. >> where would you say the net flow is now between morgan stanley brokers and merrill brokers right now? who's winning? are you -- you added more? have they -- and are you -- are you in an aggressive mode right now in terms of offering them increased compensation to come to morgan stanley, or -- >> i'm going to give you an answer which may be a little counterintuitive. the person who's...
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Jan 15, 2013
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this is a very good credit environment. but that is a huge amount of financing for an lbo. in fact we haven't seen something like that since the financial crisis, and you're not buying into a great road story here. you're not buying into energy. you're buying into dell. basically the banks would be asked to do a bet on the personal computer market. >> dan, the second piece of this, as i think about it, though, is this idea that you're actually going back to the club deal, right? you're having two firms club up, and now with something that was, almost, i thought it was now a relic of the 2007, '06, '05 and people were no longer going to do that, at best, they were going to partner potentially with their own limited partners like the pension funds but not necessarily together to fund themselves. >> yeah, and it's particularly interesting that tpg is involved in this. one of the biggest private equity firms in the world but they might have some troubles fund-raising next time out. their performance hasn't been good the last two funds. one of the things they've been telling the
this is a very good credit environment. but that is a huge amount of financing for an lbo. in fact we haven't seen something like that since the financial crisis, and you're not buying into a great road story here. you're not buying into energy. you're buying into dell. basically the banks would be asked to do a bet on the personal computer market. >> dan, the second piece of this, as i think about it, though, is this idea that you're actually going back to the club deal, right? you're...
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Jan 18, 2013
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the main thing is capital will flee a hostile environment. if i were a risk taking entrepreneur in california i would be thinking about heading east to texas. >> i feel a bit dumb because i had no idea of the export power of texas. i probably would have picked california. we'll show a table and what this table says is texas 2011 exports, $251 billion in second place california at $159 billion. that is very impressive. hears what i like the most. go to the next table. it is easy. when i first heard it i said it's obvious because california doesn't maximize natural resources because of the green component. has such a large lobby and presence in california. even if you extract all the exports petroleum and coal products that still leaves you around 200 billion. you're still blowing the competition away. >> yep. isn't that nice? we also have great trading partners in mexico and canada and we send a lot of parts to the factories which are tremendous engine of growth for mexico. so our number one trading partner is mexico followed by canada and the
the main thing is capital will flee a hostile environment. if i were a risk taking entrepreneur in california i would be thinking about heading east to texas. >> i feel a bit dumb because i had no idea of the export power of texas. i probably would have picked california. we'll show a table and what this table says is texas 2011 exports, $251 billion in second place california at $159 billion. that is very impressive. hears what i like the most. go to the next table. it is easy. when i...
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Jan 15, 2013
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the environment we live in is still conducive to be la tij jous because no one can make any money. carl, back to you. >> rick, we'll talk to you in a bit. rick santelli. >>> goldman is making waves with its bonus payouts. mary thompson has a flash. >> the company confirming that goldman has decided not to delay the bonus payments until april which would have allowed the bonuses to be taxed at a lower rate. goldman sachs' stock is slightly higher, about three-quarters of a percent. those payments originally due here in the u.s. in 2013 but the company, again, accelerated those payments into 2012 to take advantage of lower tax rates. again, the uk says -- someone close to the company saying that after some consideration, it will not be delaying bonus payments there to take advantage of lower rates. back to you. >> yeah, not the only bank where compensation is in the news. thank you, mary. >>> a few minutes left in europe's trading days. simon hobbs in less than 60 seconds. and i jumped right on it. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 since i've switched to charles schwab... tdd#
the environment we live in is still conducive to be la tij jous because no one can make any money. carl, back to you. >> rick, we'll talk to you in a bit. rick santelli. >>> goldman is making waves with its bonus payouts. mary thompson has a flash. >> the company confirming that goldman has decided not to delay the bonus payments until april which would have allowed the bonuses to be taxed at a lower rate. goldman sachs' stock is slightly higher, about three-quarters of a...
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Jan 14, 2013
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in this regulatory environment that's not a good place to be. james foreman's move into retail and other sector so i think that's a meaningful shift for them. >> is the regulatory environment too tight? >> in some number of areas, yes. in some others, no. so i can actually say mixed answer. in a lot of dodd-frank has to do with things that had nothing to do with the financial crisis. you may remember one of the first laws actually implemented where they wrote the language was debit fees. they capped debit fees. that had nothing to do with anything around the financial crisis. on the other hand things like the volcker rule and others, they're still working on them, and i think there should be some good regulation around capital risk taking, and such, on the trading desks. that's still to come. >> the other big banking wall street news this week is jamie diamond and jpmorgan, i don't know if you follow this, but the london whale, the board, is going to be potentially releasing an internal report on what happened. if you were on the board would you
in this regulatory environment that's not a good place to be. james foreman's move into retail and other sector so i think that's a meaningful shift for them. >> is the regulatory environment too tight? >> in some number of areas, yes. in some others, no. so i can actually say mixed answer. in a lot of dodd-frank has to do with things that had nothing to do with the financial crisis. you may remember one of the first laws actually implemented where they wrote the language was debit...
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Jan 16, 2013
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i think that the financial story and economic story is saying this is not the kind of financial environment that leads to rapid growth. >> interesting. >> okay. >> you tied it in to dell and jpmorgan and everything else. excellent. larry, thank you. >> my pleasure. >> join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" begins right now. >>> good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm melissa lee with carl quintanilla, and jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. stocks had a pretty nice day yesterday. the s&p closed at five-year highs. we are looking to the down decide this morning. the dow looking to lose about 62 at the open. the picture in europe, a couple of downgrades for gdp forecasts from both the german government and world bank. italy is down by 1.5%. road map this morning starts off with the banks and earnings. jpmorgan higher. goldman sachs at 18-month highs. >> japan airlines grounding their entire dreamliner fleet. >>> dell shares falling this morning after david faber reports that a deal could be announced within two weeks, but at a price of 13.50 or
i think that the financial story and economic story is saying this is not the kind of financial environment that leads to rapid growth. >> interesting. >> okay. >> you tied it in to dell and jpmorgan and everything else. excellent. larry, thank you. >> my pleasure. >> join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" begins right now. >>> good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm melissa lee with carl quintanilla, and jim...
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Jan 14, 2013
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>> in this environment, we're actually asking our clients to think about three things. first we're going to have low interest rates for awhile. so they need to adjust their expected returns. so in a low interest rate environment we're going to have lower returns across all asset classes. second, we're telling our clients that as they think about the lower returns in the context of their portfolios, they also need to recognize that we are going to have volatility from incremental policy on a global basis. whether it's in the u.s., europe, japan or emerging market countries. we are expecting that policy, whether it's monetary policy adjustments, fiscal policy, it will all be incremental. and that will create market pressure because it won't be at a pace that the markets would like to see. so that will introduce volatility. and it's not something our clients should try to trace. they should look over the horizon and invest for the long run. >> looking at the long run, three to five-year term outlook if you look at those expected returns, what's interesting to me is that yo
>> in this environment, we're actually asking our clients to think about three things. first we're going to have low interest rates for awhile. so they need to adjust their expected returns. so in a low interest rate environment we're going to have lower returns across all asset classes. second, we're telling our clients that as they think about the lower returns in the context of their portfolios, they also need to recognize that we are going to have volatility from incremental policy on...
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Jan 13, 2013
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>> i think that schools are structured environment and frankly, little girl's behavior, a willingness to sit still, pay attention, not necessarily to talk and get up and run around the room is more conducive to a classroom setting. what we've done, trying to turn little boys into different forms of little girls and a lot has to do with the way that schools are structured. you take a six-year-old and sit him in a chair and expect that they're going to stay there. it isn't natural, frankly, it isn't natural for a lot of little girls, it's more for the convenience of teachers than it is accommodating to the child's needs. >> that's truly right. little boys are savages, i don't mean that in-- it's just true. >> we can't change it, but thr he' lovable and grow up to warm, wonderful human beings when they get a little older. >> tucker: amen. on that hopeful note. coming up, get an instant mood boost from botox. true, that story coming up and women all around put it on every day, but one woman gave herself a no makeup challenge for a year, claims it made her more beautiful. is this a good le
>> i think that schools are structured environment and frankly, little girl's behavior, a willingness to sit still, pay attention, not necessarily to talk and get up and run around the room is more conducive to a classroom setting. what we've done, trying to turn little boys into different forms of little girls and a lot has to do with the way that schools are structured. you take a six-year-old and sit him in a chair and expect that they're going to stay there. it isn't natural, frankly,...